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World Economic Situation and Prospects 2013 Global outlook
United Nations
New York, 2013
2013Chap1_embargo

versão Portuguesa: Crise Euro Previsões Para Economia Mundial, ONU Alerta: Risco de Recessão Global Sincronizada, in UN DESA World Economic Situation and Prospects 2013

Chapter 1 Global economic outlook

Prospects for the world economy in 2013-2014

Risk of a synchronized global downturn

The world economy continues to struggle with post-crisis adjustments

Four years after the eruption of the global financial crisis, the world economy is still struggling to recover. During 2012, global economic growth has weakened further. A growing number of developed economies have fallen into a double-dip recession. Those in severe sovereign debt distress moved even deeper into recession, caught in the downward spiralling dynamics from high unemployment, weak aggregate demand compounded by fiscal austerity, high public debt burdens, and financial sector fragility. Growth in the major developing countries and economies in transition has also decelerated notably, reflecting both external vulnerabilities and domestic challenges. Most low-income countries have held up relatively well so far, but now face intensified adverse spillover effects from the slowdown in both developed and major middle-income countries. The prospects for the next two years continue to be challenging, fraught with major uncertainties and risksslanted towards the downside.

The global slowdown will put additional strains on developing countries

Conditioned on a set of assumptions in the United Nations baseline forecast (box I.1), growth of world gross product (WGP) is expected to reach 2.2 percent in 2012 and is forecast to remain well below potential at 2.4 percent in 2013 and 3.2 percent in 2014 (table I.1 and figure I.1). At this moderate pace, many economies will continue to operate below potential and will not recover the jobs lost during the Great Recession.

The slowdown is synchronized across countries of different levels of development (figure I.2). For many developing countries, the global slowdown will imply a much slower pace of poverty reduction and narrowing of fiscal space for investments in education, health, basic sanitation and other critical areas needed for accelerating the progress to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). This holds true in particular for the least developed countries (LDCs); they remain highly vulnerable to commodity price shocks and are receiving less external financing as official development assistance (ODA) declines in the face of greater fiscal austerity in donor countries (see below).

Conditions vary greatly across LDCs, however. At one end of the spectrum, countries that went through political turmoil and transition, like Sudan and Yemen, experienced major economic adversity during 2010 and 2011, while strong growth performances continued in Bangladesh and a fair number of African LDCs (box I.2).

Weakness in developed economies underpins the global slowdown

Weaknesses in the major developed economies are at the root of continued global economic woes. Most of them, but particularly those in Europe, are dragged into a downward spiral as high unemployment, continued deleveraging by firms and households, continued banking fragility, heightened sovereign risks, fiscal tightening, and slower growth viciously feed into one another (figure I.3a).

Several European economies are already in recession. In Germany, output has also slowed significantly, while France?s economy is stagnating. A number of new policy initiatives were taken by the euro area authorities in 2012, including the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme and steps towards greater fiscal integration and coordinated financial supervision and regulation.

Thesee measures address some of the deficiencies in the original design of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).
Significant as they may be, however, these measures are still being counteracted by other policy stances, fiscal austerity in particular, and are not sufficient to break economies out of the vicious circle and restore output and employment growth in the short run (figure I.3b). In the baseline outlook for the euro area, GDP is expected to grow by only 0.3 percent in 2013 and 1.4 percent in 2014, a feeble recovery from a decline of 0.5 percent in 2012. Because of the dynamics of the vicious circle, the risk for a much worse scenario remains high. Economic growth in the new European Union (EU) members also decelerated during 2012, with some, including the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovenia, falling back into recession.

Worsening external conditions are compounded by fiscal austerity measures, aggravating short-term growth prospects. In the outlook, GDP growth in these economies is expected to remain subdued at 2.0 percent in 2013 and 2.9 percent in 2014, but risks are high for a much worse performance if the situation in the euro area deteriorates further.

Table I.1

Growth of world output, 2006-2014

Annual percentage change

Table I.1	Annual percentage change
	Growth of world output, 2006-2014						Change from June 2012 forecastd
	2006-2009a	2010	2011b	2012c	2013c	2014c	2012	2013
World	1.1	4.0	2.7	2.2	2.4	3.2	-0.3	-0.7
Developed economies	-0.4	2.6	1.4	1.1	1.1	2.0	-0.1	-0.7
United States of America	-0.5	2.4	1.8	2.1	1.7	2.7	0.0	-0.6
Japan	-1.5	4.5	-0.7	1.5	0.6	0.8	-0.2	-1.5
European Union	-0.3	2.1	1.5	-0.3	0.6	1.7	-0.3	-0.6
EU-15	-0.5	2.1	1.4	-0.4	0.5	1.6	-0.3	-0.6
New EU members	2.1	2.3	3.1	1.2	2.0	2.9	-0.5	-0.8
Euro area	-0.4	2.1	1.5	-0.5	0.3	1.4	-0.2	-0.6
Other European countries	0.9	1.9	1.7	1.7	1.5	1.9	0.6	0.2
Other developed countries	1.2	2.8	2.4	2.3	2.0	3.0	0.0	-0.6
Economies in transition	2.2	4.4	4.5	3.5	3.6	4.2	-0.5	-0.6
South-Eastern Europe	1.6	0.4	1.1	-0.6	1.2	2.6	-1.2	-0.6
Commonwealth of Independent States and Georgia	2.2	4.8	4.8	3.8	3.8	4.4	-0.5	-0.6
Russian Federation	1.7	4.3	4.3	3.7	3.6	4.2	-0.7	-0.8
Developing economies	5.2	7.7	5.7	4.7	5.1	5.6	-0.6	-0.7
Africa	4.7	4.7	1.1	5.0	4.8	5.1	0.8	0.0
North Africa	4.2	4.1	-6.0	7.5	4.4	4.9	3.1	0.0
Sub-Saharan Africa	5.0	5.0	4.5	3.9	5.0	5.2	-0.2	0.0
Nigeria	6.6	7.8	7.4	6.4	6.8	7.2	0.1	0.0
South Africa	2.5	2.9	3.1	2.5	3.1	3.8	-0.3	-0.4
Others	6.3	5.5	4.4	3.9	5.5	5.3	-0.3	0.1
East and South Asia	7.1	9.0	6.8	5.5	6.0	6.3	-0.8	-0.8
East Asia	7.2	9.2	7.1	5.8	6.2	6.5	-0.7	-0.7
China	11.0	10.3	9.2	7.7	7.9	8.0	-0.6	-0.6
South Asia	6.4	8.3	5.8	4.4	5.0	5.7	-1.2	-1.1
India	7.3	9.6	6.9	5.5	6.1	6.5	-1.2	-1.1
Western Asia	2.3	6.7	6.7	3.3	3.3	4.1	-0.7	-1.1
Latin America and the Caribbean	2.5	6.0	4.3	3.1	3.9	4.4	-0.5	-0.3
South America	3.9	6.5	4.5	2.7	4.0	4.4	-0.9	-0.4
Brazil	3.6	7.5	2.7	1.3	4.0	4.4	-2.0	-0.5
Mexico and Central America	-0.1	5.4	4.0	4.0	3.9	4.6	0.6	0.0
Mexico	-0.6	5.5	3.9	3.9	3.8	4.6	0.5	-0.1
Caribbean	3.6	3.5	2.7	2.9	3.7	3.8	-0.4	-0.3
By level of development
High-income countries	-0.2	2.9	1.6	1.2	1.3	2.2
Upper middle income countries	5.3	7.4	5.8	5.1	5.4	5.8
Lower middle income countries	5.8	7.4	5.6	4.4	5.5	6.0
Low-income countries	5.9	6.6	6.0	5.7	5.9	5.9
Least developed countries	7.2	5.8	3.7	3.7	5.7	5.5	-0.4	0.0
Memorandum items
World tradee	-0.3	13.3	7.0	3.3	4.3	4.9	-0.8	-1.2
World output growth with PPP-based weights	2.3	5.0	3.7	3.0	3.3	4.0	-0.4	-0.7
	2006-2009a	2010	2011b	2012c	2013c	2014c	2012	2013
	Growth of world output, 2006-2014						Change from June 2012 forecastd

a	Average percentage change.
b	Actual or most recent estimates.
c	Forecast, based in part on Project LINK and baseline projections of the UN/DESA World Economic Forecasting Model.
d	See United Nations, World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2012 (E/2012/72).
e	Includes goods and services.
Source:	UN/DESA

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Figure I.1
Growth of world gross product, 2006-2014a

Source: UN/DESA.
a Growth rate for 2012 is partially estimated.
Estimates for 2013 and 2014 are forecasts.
See ?Uncertainties and risks? section for a discussion of the downside scenario and box I.3 for a discussion of the policy scenario.

Figure I.2
Growth of GDP per capita by level of development, 2000-2014

Source: UN/DESA.
a Estimates.
b United Nations
forecasts

Box I.1	Major assumptions for the baseline forecast
The forecast presented in the text is based on estimates calculated using the United Nations World Economic Forecasting Model (WEFM) and is informed by country-specific economic outlooks provided by participants in Project LINK, a network of institutions and researchers supported by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations. The provisional individual country forecasts submitted by country experts are adjusted based on harmonized global assumptions and the imposition of global consistency rules (especially for trade flows, measured in both volume and value) set by the WEFM. The main global assumptions are discussed below and form the core of the baseline forecast?the scenario that is assigned the highest probability of occurrence. Alternative scenarios are presented in the sections on ?Uncertainties and risks? and ?Policy challenges?. Those scenarios are normally assigned lower probability than the baseline forecast. Monetary policy The Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) is assumed to keep the federal funds interest rate at the current low level of between 0.00 and 0.25 percent until mid-2015. It is assumed that the Fed will purchase agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month until the end of 2014, and will also continue its programme to extend the average maturity of its securities holdings through the end of 2012, as well as reinvest principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. The European Central Bank (ECB) is assumed to cut the minimum bid and marginal lending facility rates by another 25 basis points, leaving the deposit rate at 0 percent. It is also assumed that the ECB will start to implement the announced new policy initiative, Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT), to purchase the government bonds of Spain and a few selected members of the euro area. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will keep the policy interest rate at the current level (0.0-0.1 percent) and implement the Asset Purchase Program, with a ceiling of ¥91 trillion, as announced. With regard to major emerging economies, the People?s Bank of China (PBC) is expected to reduce reserve requirement rates twice in 2013 and reduce interest rates one more time in the same period. Fiscal policy In the United States, it is assumed that the 2 percent payroll tax cut and emergency unemployment insurance benefits are extended for 2013, to be phased out gradually over several years. It is also assumed that the automatic spending cuts now scheduled to begin in January 2013 will be delayed, giving more time for the new Congress and president to produce a package of spending cuts and tax increases effective in 2014. The Bush tax cuts are assumed to be extended for 2013-2014. As a result, real federal government spending on goods and services will fall about 3.0 percent in 2013 and 2014, after a fall of about 2.5 percent in the previous two years. In the euro area, fiscal policy is assumed to be focused on reducing fiscal imbalances. The majority of countries remain subject to the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) under which they must submit plans to bring their fiscal deficits close to balance within a specified time frame. Typically, a minimum correction of 0.5 percent per annum is expected, and the time frames range from 2012 to 2014. The time periods for achieving these targets will be extended in the most difficult cases. It is also assumed that in the event that tensions increase in sovereign debt markets, affected euro area countries will seek assistance from the rescue fund, thus activating the new OMT programme of the ECB. It is assumed that this will allow increases in bond yields to be contained and that the policy conditionality attached to the use of OMT finance will not entail additional fiscal austerity; rather, Governments requesting funds will be pressed to fully implement already announced fiscal consolidation measures. In Japan, the newly ratified bill to increase the consumption tax rate from its current level of 5 percent to 8 percent by April 2014 and to 10 percent by October 2015 will be implemented. Real government expenditure, including investment, is assumed to decline by a small proportion in 2013-2014, mainly owing to phasing out of reconstruction spending. In China, the Government is assumed to maintain a proactive fiscal policy stance, with an increase in public investment spending on infrastructure in 2013. Exchange rates among major currencies It is assumed that during the forecasting period of 2013-2014, the euro will fl uctuate about $1.28 per euro. The Japanese yen is assumed to average about ¥80 per United States dollar, and the renminbi will average CNY6.23 per United States dollar. Oil prices Oil prices (Brent) are assumed to average about $105 per barrel (pb) in 2013-2014, compared to $110 pb in 2012.
Sorce:	World Economic Situation and Prospects 2013 Global outlook

Box I.1

Major assumptions for the baseline forecast

The forecast presented in the text is based on estimates calculated using the United Nations World Economic Forecasting Model (WEFM) and is informed by country-specific economic outlooks provided by participants in Project LINK, a network of institutions and researchers supported by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations. The provisional individual country forecasts submitted by country experts are adjusted based on harmonized global assumptions and the imposition of global consistency rules (especially for trade flows, measured in both volume and value) set by the WEFM. The main global assumptions are discussed below and form the core of the baseline forecast?the scenario that is assigned the highest probability of occurrence. Alternative scenarios are presented in the sections on ?Uncertainties and risks? and ?Policy challenges?. Those scenarios are normally assigned lower probability than the baseline forecast.

Monetary policy

The Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) is assumed to keep the federal funds interest rate at the current low level of between 0.00 and 0.25 percent until mid-2015. It is assumed that the Fed will purchase agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month until the end of 2014, and will also continue its programme to extend the average maturity of its securities holdings through the end of 2012, as well as reinvest principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is assumed to cut the minimum bid and marginal lending facility rates by another 25 basis points, leaving the deposit rate at 0 percent. It is also assumed that the ECB will start to implement the announced new policy initiative, Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT), to purchase the government bonds of Spain and a few selected members of the euro area. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will keep the policy interest rate at the current level (0.0-0.1 percent) and implement the Asset Purchase Program, with a ceiling of ¥91 trillion, as announced. With regard to major emerging economies, the People?s Bank of China (PBC) is expected to reduce reserve requirement rates twice in 2013 and reduce interest rates one more time in the same period.

Fiscal policy

In the United States, it is assumed that the 2 percent payroll tax cut and emergency unemployment insurance benefits are extended for 2013, to be phased out gradually over several years. It is also assumed that the automatic spending cuts now scheduled to begin in January 2013 will be delayed, giving more time for the new Congress and president to produce a package of spending cuts and tax increases effective in 2014. The Bush tax cuts are assumed to be extended for 2013-2014. As a result, real federal government spending on goods and services will fall about 3.0 percent in 2013 and 2014, after a fall of about 2.5 percent in the previous two years. In the euro area, fiscal policy is assumed to be focused on reducing fiscal imbalances.
The majority of countries remain subject to the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) under which they must submit plans to bring their fiscal deficits close to balance within a specified time frame. Typically, a minimum correction of 0.5 percent per annum is expected, and the time frames range from 2012 to 2014. The time periods for achieving these targets will be extended in the most difficult cases. It is also assumed that in the event that tensions increase in sovereign debt markets, affected euro area countries will seek assistance from the rescue fund, thus activating the new OMT programme of the ECB. It is assumed that this will allow increases in bond yields to be contained and that the policy conditionality attached to the use of OMT finance will not entail additional fiscal austerity; rather, Governments requesting funds will be pressed to fully implement already announced fiscal consolidation measures. In Japan, the newly ratified bill to increase the consumption tax rate from its current level of 5 percent to 8 percent by April 2014 and to 10 percent by October 2015 will be implemented.
Real government expenditure, including investment, is assumed to decline by a small proportion in 2013-2014, mainly owing to phasing out of reconstruction spending. In China, the Government is assumed to maintain a proactive fiscal policy stance, with an increase in public investment spending on infrastructure in 2013.

Exchange rates among major currencies

It is assumed that during the forecasting period of 2013-2014, the euro will fl uctuate about $1.28 per euro. The Japanese yen is assumed to average about ¥80 per United States dollar, and the renminbi will average CNY6.23 per United States dollar.

Oil prices

Oil prices (Brent) are assumed to average about $105 per barrel (pb) in 2013-2014, compared to $110 pb in 2012.

Sorce:

World Economic Situation and Prospects 2013 Global outlook

Growth in the United States will slow, with significant downside risks

The United States economy weakened notably during 2012, and growth prospects for 2013 and 2014 remain sluggish. On the up side, the beleaguered housing sector is showing some nascent signs of recovery. Further support is expected from the new round of quantitative easing (QE) recently launched by the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) whereby monetary authorities will continue to purchase mortgage-backed securities until the employment situation improves substantially. On the down side, the lingering uncertainties about the fiscal stance continue to restrain growth of business investment. External demand is also expected to remain weak. In the baseline outlook, gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States is forecast to decelerate to 1.7 percent in 2013 from an already anaemic pace of 2.1 percent in 2012. Risks remain high for a much bleaker scenario, emanating from the ?fiscal cliff ? which would entail a drop in aggregate demand of as much as 4 percent of GDP during 2013 and 2014 (see ?Uncertainties and risks? section).

Adding to the already sombre scenario are anticipated spillover effects from possible intensification of the euro area crisis, a ?hard landing? of the Chinese economy and greater weakening of other major developing economies.

The need for fiscal consolidation will reduce growth in Japan

Economic growth in Japan in 2012 was up from a year ago, mainly driven by reconstruction works and recovery from the earthquake-related disasters of 2011. The Government also took measures to stimulate private consumption. Exports faced strong headwinds from the slowdown in global demand and appreciation of the yen. In the outlook, Japan?s economy is expected to slow given the phasing out of private consumption incentives combined with a new measure increasing taxes on consumption, anticipated reductions in pension benefits, and government spending cuts. These measures responded to concerns about the extremely high level of public indebtedness. The impact of the greater fiscal austerity will be mitigated by reconstruction investments, which will continue but at a slower pace.

Box I.2	Prospects for the least developed countries
The economies of the least developed countries (LDCs) are expected to rebound in 2013. GDP growth is projected to average 5.7 percent in 2013, up from 3.7 percent in 2012. However, most of the rebound is expected to come from improvements in economic conditions in Yemen and Sudan, following notable contractions of both economies in the face of political instability during 2010 and 2011. In per capita terms, GDP growth for LDCs is expected to accelerate from 1.3 percent in 2012 to 3.3 percent in 2013. While an improvement, at this rate welfare progress will remain well below the pace of 5.0 percent per annum experienced during much of the 2000s, prior to the world economic and financial crisis. Economic performance varies greatly among LDCs, however. Numerous oil exporters such as Angola and Guinea will benefit from continued solid oil prices, propelling GDP growth to more than 7 percent and 4 percent, respectively, in 2013. LDCs with a predominant agricultural sector have seen volatile economic conditions. In Gambia, for example, where agriculture provides about one third of total output, poor crop conditions caused GDP to contract by 1.0 percent in 2012. Much better harvests are expected to propel GDP growth to 6.2 percent. Such sharp swings in the overall economic performance create multiple problems for policymakers. The inherent uncertainty not only complicates the planning and design of economic policies, especially those of a longer-term nature, but it also threatens the implementation of existing policy plans owing to sudden dramatic changes in economic parameters. In addition, unforeseen crises create needs?in the form of shortterm assistance to farmers, for example?which divert scarce financial and institutional resources away from more structurally oriented policy areas. On the other hand, Ethiopia?s robust growth of the past few years is expected to come down slightly but remain strong, partly owing to its programme of developing the agricultural sector. A number of LDCs have also seen solid investment and consumption, supported by sustained inflows of worker remittances. This applies, for example, to Bangladesh, whose growth rate will continue to exceed 6.0 percent in 2013 and 2014 despite a marked slowdown in external demand. Growth of remittance inflows to Bangladesh picked up to about 20 percent year on year in the second half of 2012, following a strong rise in overseas employment earlier in the year. The outlook for LDCs entails several downside risks. A more pronounced deterioration in the global economic environment would negatively affect primary commodity exporters through falling terms of trade, while others may be affected by falling worker remittances. Falling aid flows are expected to limit external financing options for LDCs in the outlook.

Box I.2

Prospects for the least developed countries

The economies of the least developed countries (LDCs) are expected to rebound in 2013. GDP growth is projected to average 5.7 percent in 2013, up from 3.7 percent in 2012. However, most of the rebound is expected to come from improvements in economic conditions in Yemen and Sudan, following notable contractions of both economies in the face of political instability during 2010 and 2011.

In per capita terms, GDP growth for LDCs is expected to accelerate from 1.3 percent in 2012 to 3.3 percent in 2013. While an improvement, at this rate welfare progress will remain well below the pace of 5.0 percent per annum experienced during much of the 2000s, prior to the world economic and financial crisis.

Economic performance varies greatly among LDCs, however. Numerous oil exporters such as Angola and Guinea will benefit from continued solid oil prices, propelling GDP growth to more than 7 percent and 4 percent, respectively, in 2013. LDCs with a predominant agricultural sector have seen volatile economic conditions. In Gambia, for example, where agriculture provides about one third of total output, poor crop conditions caused GDP to contract by 1.0 percent in 2012.

Much better harvests are expected to propel GDP growth to 6.2 percent. Such sharp swings in the overall economic performance create multiple problems for policymakers. The inherent uncertainty not only complicates the planning and design of economic policies, especially those of a longer-term nature, but it also threatens the implementation of existing policy plans owing to sudden dramatic changes in economic parameters. In addition, unforeseen crises create needs?in the form of shortterm assistance to farmers, for example?which divert scarce financial and institutional resources away from more structurally oriented policy areas. On the other hand, Ethiopia?s robust growth of the past few years is expected to come down slightly but remain strong, partly owing to its programme of developing the agricultural sector.

A number of LDCs have also seen solid investment and consumption, supported by sustained inflows of worker remittances. This applies, for example, to Bangladesh, whose growth rate will continue to exceed 6.0 percent in 2013 and 2014 despite a marked slowdown in external demand. Growth of remittance inflows to Bangladesh picked up to about 20 percent year on year in the second half of 2012, following a strong rise in overseas employment earlier in the year.

The outlook for LDCs entails several downside risks. A more pronounced deterioration in the global economic environment would negatively affect primary commodity exporters through falling terms of trade, while others may be affected by falling worker remittances. Falling aid flows are expected to limit external financing options for LDCs in the outlook.

GDP is forecast to grow at 0.6 per cent in 2013 and 0.8 per cent in 2014, down from 1.5 per cent in 2012.

Spillover effects from developed countries and domestic issues dampen growth in developing countrie

The economic woes of the developed countries are spilling over to developing countries and economies in transition through weaker demand for their exports and heightened volatility in capital flows and commodity prices. Their problems are also home-grown, however; growth in investment spending has slowed significantly, presaging a continued deceleration of future output growth if not counteracted by additional policy measures. Several of the major developing economies that have seen fast growth in recent decades are starting to face structural bottlenecks, including fi nancing constraints faced by local governments regarding investment projects in some sectors of the economy, and overinvestment leading to excess production capacity in others, as in the case of China (see ?Uncertainties and risks? section).

Figure I.3a
The vicious cycle of developed economies

Euro, Crisis, Risks, Austerity, Policies, Alert, UN, Global Outlook, Global, World, Economic, Situation,

Figure I.3b
Feeble policy efforts to break the vicious cycle

Source: UN/DESA

On average, economies in Africa are forecast to see a slight moderation in output growth in 2013 to 4.8 percent, down from 5.0 percent in 2012. Major factors underpinning this continued growth trajectory include the strong performance of oil-exporting countries, continued fiscal spending in infrastructure projects, and expanding economic ties with Asian economies. However, Africa remains plagued by numerous challenges, including armed confl icts in various parts of the region. Growth of income per capita will continue, but at a pace considered insufficient to achieve substantial poverty reduction.
Infrastructure shortfalls are among the major obstacles to more dynamic economic development in most economies of the region.

The economies in developing Asia have weakened considerably during 2012 as the region?s growth engines, China and India, both shifted into lower gear. While a significant deceleration in exports has been a key factor for the slowdown, the effects of policy
tightening in the previous two years also linger. Domestic investment has softened markedly.

Both China and India face a number of structural challenges hampering growth (see below). India?s space for more policy stimulus seems limited. China and other countries in the region possess greater space for additional stimulus, but thus far have refrained from
using it. In the outlook, growth for East Asia is forecast to pick up mildly to 6.2 percent in 2013, from 5.8 percent estimated for 2012. GDP growth in South Asia is expected to average 5.0 percent in 2013, up from 4.4 percent of 2012, but still well below potential.

Contrasting trends are found in Western Asia. Most oil-exporting countries experienced robust growth supported by record-high oil revenues and government spending.

By contrast, economic activity weakened in oil-importing countries, burdened by higher import bills, declining external demand and shrinking policy space. As a result, oil-exporting and oil-importing economies are facing a dual track growth outlook. Meanwhile, social unrest and political instability, notably in the Syrian Arab Republic, continue to elevate the risk assessment for the entire region. On average, GDP growth in the region is expected to decelerate to 3.3 percent in 2012 and 2013, from 6.7 percent in 2011.
GDP growth in Latin America and the Caribbean decelerated notably during 2012, led by weaker export demand. In the outlook, subject to the risks of a further downturn, the baseline projection is for a return to moderate economic growth rates, led by stronger economic performance in Brazil. For the region as whole, GDP growth is forecast to average 3.9 percent in the baseline for 2013, compared to 3.1 percent in 2012.

Among economies in transition, growth in the economies of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) has continued in 2012, although it moderated in the second half of the year. Firm commodity prices, especially those of oil and natural gas, held up growth among energy-exporting economies, including Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation. In contrast, growth in the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine was adversely affected by the economic crisis in the euro area. The economies of small energy-importing countries in the CIS were supported by private remittances. In the outlook, GDP for the CIS is expected to grow by 3.8 percent in 2013, the same as in 2012. The prospects for most transition economies in South-Eastern Europe in the short run remain challenging, owing to their close ties with the euro area through trade and finance. In these economies, GDP growth is expected to average 1.2 percent in 2013, a mild rebound from the recession of 2012 when economies in the subregion shrank by 0.6 percent.

Lower greenhouse gas emissions, but far cry from ?low-carbon? growth

Helped by weaker global economic growth, greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted by the Annex I countries to the Kyoto Protocol are estimated to have fallen by about 2 percent per year during 2011-2012 (see annex table A.22). This reverses the 3 percent increase in GHG emissions by these countries in 2010. Emissions fell by 6 percent in 2009 along with the fallout in GDP growth associated with the Great Recession. With the more recent decline, GHG emission reductions among Annex I countries are back on the long-run downward trend. Given the further moderation in global economic growth, emissions by these countries are expected to decline further during 2013-2014.[1] As a group, Annex I countries have already achieved the target of the Kyoto Protocol to reduce emissions by at least 5 percent from 1990 levels during the 2008-2012 commitment period. Several important individual countries, however, such as the United States and Canada, are still to meet their own national targets. At the same time, GHG emissions in many developing countries are increasing at a rapid pace, such that globally, emissions continue to climb.

The world remains far from achieving its target for CO2 equivalent concentrations

In all, the world is far from being on track to reduce emissions to the extent considered necessary for keeping carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent concentrations to less than 450 parts per million (consistent with the target of stabilizing global warming at a 2°C temperature increase, or less, from pre-industrial levels).[2] To avoid exceeding this limit, GHG emissions would need to drop by 80 percent by mid-century. Given current trends and even with the extension of the Kyoto Protocol, this is an unachievable target.

?Greener? growth pathways need to be created now, and despite large investment costs, they would also provide opportunities for more robust short-term recovery and global rebalancing (see ?Policy challenges? and chapter II on the environmental costs of expanding trade through global value chains).

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1 Projections are based on past trends in GDP growth and GHG emissions, accounting implicitly for the effects over time of policies aimed at decoupling (see notes to annex table A.22 for a description of the methodology). As far as the longer-term trends are concerned, the impact of more recent energy policy changes may not be adequately refl ected.

2 A recent study by PricewaterhouseCoopers notes that ?since 2000, the rate of decarbonisation has averaged 0.8% globally, a fraction of the required reduction. From 2010 to 2011, global carbon intensity continued this trend, falling by just 0.7%. Because of this slow start, global carbon intensity now needs to be cut by an average of 5.1% a year from now to 2050?. This rate of reduction has not been achieved in any of the past 50 years?. (See PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, ?Too late for two degrees? Low carbon economy index 2012?, November 2012, pp. 2-3, available from

http://preview.thenewsmarket.com/Previews/PWC/DocumentAssets/261179_v2.pdf).

Job crisis continue

Unemployment remains high in developed economies

Unemployment remains elevated in many developed economies, with the situation in Europe being the most challenging. A double-dip recession in several European economies has taken a heavy toll on labour markets. The unemployment rate continued to climb to a record high in the euro area during 2012, up by more than one percentage point from one year ago.

Conditions are worse in Spain and Greece, where more than a quarter of the working population is without a job and more than half of the youth is unemployed. Only a few economies in the region, such as Austria, Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands, register low unemployment rates of about 5 percent. Unemployment rates in Central and Eastern Europe also edged up slightly in 2012, partly resulting from fiscal austerity. Japan?s unemployment rate retreated to below 5 percent. In the United States, the unemployment rate stayed above 8 percent for the most part of 2012, but dropped to just below that level from September onwards. However, the labour participation rate is at a record low, while the shares of longterm unemployment reached historic highs of 40.6 percent (jobless for 6 months or longer) and 31.4 percent (one year or longer). Long-term unemployment is also severe in the EU and Japan, where four of each ten of the unemployed have been without a job for more than one year. For the group of developed countries as a whole, the incidence of long-term unemployment (over one year) stood at more than 35 percent by July 2012, affecting about 17 million workers. Such a prolonged duration of unemployment tends to have significant, long-lasting detrimental impacts on both the individuals who have lost their jobs and on the economy as a whole. The skills of unemployed workers deteriorate commensurate with the duration of their unemployment, most likely leading to lower earnings for those individuals who are eventually able to find new jobs. At the aggregate level, the higher the proportion of workers trapped in protracted unemployment, the greater the adverse impact on the productivity of the economy in the medium to long run.

Adequate job c]]> <![CDATA[[UK] FR/ESP/ENG/AR Declaration of WSF Assembly in Tunis]]> http://www.peoplesassemblies.org/2013/04/frespengar-declaration-of-wsf-assembly-in-tunis/ 2013-04-03 02:04:33 http://www.peoplesassemblies.org/2013/04/frespengar-declaration-of-wsf-assembly-in-tunis/ Continue reading →]]> <![CDATA[[UK] BARCELONA #15M Newsletter nr 41]]> http://acampadabcninternacional.wordpress.com/2013/03/27/barcelona-15m-newsletter-nr-41/ 2013-03-27 20:03:38 http://acampadabcninternacional.wordpress.com/2013/03/27/barcelona-15m-newsletter-nr-41/ Continue reading →]]> <![CDATA[[UK] Occupy activists at World Social Forum]]> http://occupylondon.org.uk/archives/25792 2013-03-24 21:03:10 http://occupylondon.org.uk/archives/25792 Continue reading →]]> <![CDATA[[UK] London Occupy Economics Working Group (EWG) budget response ? ?a missed opportunity?]]> http://occupylondon.org.uk/archives/25740 2013-03-20 20:03:04 http://occupylondon.org.uk/archives/25740 Continue reading →]]> <![CDATA[[UK] Rebalancing Austerity ? a modest alternative budget 2013 ? from Occupy Birmingham]]> http://occupylondon.org.uk/archives/25742 2013-03-20 19:03:42 http://occupylondon.org.uk/archives/25742 Continue reading →]]> <![CDATA[[UK] InterOccupy Newsletter for the week of March 19th, 2013]]> http://interoccupy.net/blog/newsletter-3-19-13/ 2013-03-20 05:03:35 http://interoccupy.net/blog/newsletter-3-19-13/ subscribe here! 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Poem]]> http://www.peoplesassemblies.org/2013/03/global-shi-poem/ 2013-03-05 23:03:42 http://www.peoplesassemblies.org/2013/03/global-shi-poem/ Continue reading →]]> <![CDATA[[UK] For a Europe of the People]]> http://www.peoplesassemblies.org/2013/03/for-a-europe-of-the-people/ 2013-03-05 21:03:37 http://www.peoplesassemblies.org/2013/03/for-a-europe-of-the-people/ Continue reading →]]> <![CDATA[[UK] Moroccan Students Protest Campus Death]]> http://www.peoplesassemblies.org/2013/03/moroccan-students-protest-campus-death/ 2013-03-01 12:03:59 http://www.peoplesassemblies.org/2013/03/moroccan-students-protest-campus-death/ Continue reading →]]> <![CDATA[[UK] Solidarity From the workers of Kouta Steel Factory in Egypt To the workers of Vio.Me Industrial Minerals Factory in Greece]]> http://takethesquare.net/2013/02/27/solidarity-from-the-workers-of-kouta-steel-factory-in-egypt-to-the-workers-of-vio-me-industrial-minerals-factory-in-greece/ 2013-02-27 11:02:30 http://takethesquare.net/2013/02/27/solidarity-from-the-workers-of-kouta-steel-factory-in-egypt-to-the-workers-of-vio-me-industrial-minerals-factory-in-greece/ Continue reading →]]> <![CDATA[[UK] 20 February Anniversary in Morocco]]> http://www.peoplesassemblies.org/2013/02/20-february-anniversary-in-morocco/ 2013-02-26 21:02:51 http://www.peoplesassemblies.org/2013/02/20-february-anniversary-in-morocco/ Continue reading →]]> <![CDATA[[UK] Invitation: GlobalSquare online meeting, Sunday 3 March 2013]]> http://www.peoplesassemblies.org/2013/02/invitation-globalsquare-online-meeting-sunday-3-march-2013/ 2013-02-26 21:02:41 http://www.peoplesassemblies.org/2013/02/invitation-globalsquare-online-meeting-sunday-3-march-2013/ Continue reading →]]> <![CDATA[[UK] BARCELONA #15M Newsletter nr 39]]> http://acampadabcninternacional.wordpress.com/2013/02/26/barcelona-15m-newsletter-nr-39/ 2013-02-26 18:02:00 http://acampadabcninternacional.wordpress.com/2013/02/26/barcelona-15m-newsletter-nr-39/ Continue reading →]]> <![CDATA[[UK] Italian Election Commentary]]> http://www.peoplesassemblies.org/2013/02/italian-election-commentary/ 2013-02-26 13:02:53 http://www.peoplesassemblies.org/2013/02/italian-election-commentary/ Continue reading →]]> <![CDATA[[UK] March 2nd Portugal]]> http://www.peoplesassemblies.org/2013/02/march-2nd-portugal/ 2013-02-26 13:02:52 http://www.peoplesassemblies.org/2013/02/march-2nd-portugal/ Continue reading →]]> <![CDATA[[UK] Spain 23rd February 2013]]> http://www.peoplesassemblies.org/2013/02/spain-23rd-february-2013/ 2013-02-26 13:02:48 http://www.peoplesassemblies.org/2013/02/spain-23rd-february-2013/ Continue reading →]]> <![CDATA[[UK] Blockupy Frankfurt Call for Action May 31-June 1]]> http://www.peoplesassemblies.org/2013/02/blockupy-frankfurt-call-for-action-may-31-june-1/ 2013-02-15 21:02:53 http://www.peoplesassemblies.org/2013/02/blockupy-frankfurt-call-for-action-may-31-june-1/ Continue reading →]]> <![CDATA[[UK] BARCELONA #15M Newsletter nr 38]]> http://acampadabcninternacional.wordpress.com/2013/02/14/barcelona-15m-newsletter-nr-38-2/ 2013-02-14 21:02:56 http://acampadabcninternacional.wordpress.com/2013/02/14/barcelona-15m-newsletter-nr-38-2/ Continue reading →]]> <![CDATA[[UK] International Students Movement Platform]]> http://www.peoplesassemblies.org/2013/02/international-students-movement-platform/ 2013-02-07 16:02:53 http://www.peoplesassemblies.org/2013/02/international-students-movement-platform/ Continue reading →]]> <![CDATA[[UK] Occupy the Economy ? May 2013]]> http://www.peoplesassemblies.org/2013/02/occupy-the-economy-may-2013/ 2013-02-06 23:02:39 http://www.peoplesassemblies.org/2013/02/occupy-the-economy-may-2013/ Continue reading →]]> <![CDATA[[UK] BARCELONA #15M Newsletter nr 37]]> http://acampadabcninternacional.wordpress.com/2013/02/04/barcelona-15m-newsletter-nr-37/ 2013-02-04 17:02:44 http://acampadabcninternacional.wordpress.com/2013/02/04/barcelona-15m-newsletter-nr-37/ Continue reading →]]> <![CDATA[[PT] UN Report Alert: Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis, Fiscal Austerity Progams And Unemployment Push World To Deeper Recession, in World Economic Situation and Prospects 2013 Global outlook]]> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/May15InternationalOrganization/~3/v-xRkpIXxcE/un-report-alert-euro-sovereign-debt-crisis-fiscal-austerity-recession-risks.html 2013-01-29 04:01:21 http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/May15InternationalOrganization/~3/v-xRkpIXxcE/un-report-alert-euro-sovereign-debt-crisis-fiscal-austerity-recession-risks.html Europe?s debt crisis reverberations continue to depress the region, saysUN Report World Economic Situation and Prospects 2013

The level of uncertainty stemming from the euro area crisis is having a strong negative impact across the region

Geneva, 17 January: The euro area is in recession and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the region is expected to reach only 0.3 per cent in 2013, strengthening marginally to 1.4 per cent in 2014, said the United Nations in the annual report, World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2013.

Versão Portuguesa: Austeridade Fiscal do Euro Aumenta Risco de Nova Recessão da Economia Global, Alerta Relatório da ONU World Economic Situation and Prospects 2013 Global outlook

UN, Report, Alert, Euro, Sovereign, Debt, Crisis, Fiscal, Austerity, Progams, Unemployment, World, Recession

The full WESP report, launched by UN, says the euro area sovereign debt crisis and attendant fiscal austerity programs remain the dominant forces depressing growth in the region. This, coupled with slowing external demand and high oil prices, threatens bleak prospects in the outlook. WESP says the euro area economy witnessed successive negative quarterly rates of GDP growth in the second and third quarters?a technical recession?and with a further sharp drop estimated for the fourth quarter, GDP is expected to decline by 0.5 per cent in 2012.

The report warns that Western Europe?s current economic policies do not address key short-term issues of restoring growth in the region or how to put the crisis countries on a more probable path to fiscal sustainability.

At least five economies are now in recession, with very poor prospects going forward. Italy?s GDP is expected to decline by 2.4 per cent in 2012 and 0.3 per cent in 2013 and Spain?s by 1.6 per cent and 1.4 per cent, respectively. The other countries in recession are Cyprus, Greece and Portugal.

The WESP report says not all economies are equally affected, for instance, Germany?s economy has slowed substantially and is expected to grow by only 0.8 per cent in 2012 after 3.0 per cent in 2011, and will see only a marginal rise to 1.0 per cent in 2013. France narrowly averted recession with a slight up-tick in GDP growth in the third quarter. Output growth is expected to reach only 0.1 per cent for 2012 as a whole and 0.3 per cent in 2013. Outside of the euro area, the economy of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland exited recession in the third quarter, boosted by the Olympic Games, but nonetheless GDP is expected to contract by 0.3 per cent for 2012. In the baseline forecast, only a slight rebound to 1.2 per cent is expected for 2013, as exports pick up (aided by a depreciation of the currency) and domestic demand solidifies.

Consumption is expected to remain weak in the outlook, but with significant differences across the region. Austerity programmes depress consumption but vary in intensity across countries. The level of uncertainty stemming from the ebbs and flows of the euro area crisis is having a more uniform impact across the region, as consumer confidence, which had been improving earlier in the year, has since declined sharply.

Investment spending also remains weak in the region with little prospect for a sustained upturn given weak demand, and elevated uncertainty from the sovereign debt crisis. In the crisis countries funding conditions remain extremely tight, as banking systems remain under tremendous pressure. Housing investment remains a major drag to activity in some countries, particularly those that experienced a housing bubble and subsequent collapse, such as Spain and the United Kingdom.

Unemployment

The unemployment rate in the euro area climbed to 11.6 per cent in September, up 1.3 percentage points from one year ago. Significant regional differences remain. In Spain and Greece, unemployment is above 25 per cent and in Portugal 15.7 per cent?all countries subject to harsh austerity programmes. At the other extreme are Austria, Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands where rates of unemployment are nearer to 5 per cent. Yet, given the only marginal pick up in activity expected from mid-2013 and into 2014, all countries are expected to see at least some increase in unemployment in 2013 before gradually coming down, with an estimated average of 11.3 per cent in the euro area in 2012, 11.8 per cent in 2013 and 11.6 in 2014.

Fiscal policy in the region continues to be focused on reducing fiscal imbalances.

Government budget deficits of euro area members declined on average from 6.0 per cent of GDP in 2010 to 4.1 per cent of GDP in 2011 and further to near 3.0 per cent in 2012.

WESP warns that the sovereign debt crisis could flare up significantly, impacting on bank solvency and depressing confidence. Governments may be forced to make up for growth shortfalls by introducing new austerity measures. Oil prices could surge again. On the positive side, external demand, particularly from east Asia and perhaps the United States, may pick up earlier and with more vigour than anticipated, giving a boost to exports and investment. Tensions may subside in the region following more convincing implementation of already announced packages of policy measures, which would boost confidence.

The new EU members

The tenuous economic recovery that emerged in the new European Union member States in 2010 has continued to weaken throughout 2012. Although some countries of the region, such as the Baltic States and Poland, started the year with solid first quarter economic results, the ongoing troubles in the euro area, which still remains the major export market for the region and the biggest source of foreign direct investment, has led to a visible deterioration of the region?s current economic prospects. Some of the new EU members, such as the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovenia, saw negative annual economic growth. Most of the fiscal space the new EU members possessed has been exhausted and some countries, such as Poland, face constitutional limits on the size of public debt. Aggregate GDP of the new EU members expanded by 1.2 per cent in 2012 and growth will accelerate to a still moderate rate of 2.0 per cent in 2013 amid numerous uncertainties and risks.

The biggest economy, Poland, is relatively sheltered from the euro area troubles, having a smaller export-to-GDP ratio compared with its regional peers and exhibiting extensive trade ties with the Russian Federation. Cooling domestic demand and the need for fiscal consolidation slowed the economy in the second half of the year, with annual growth expected to be below 3 per cent in 2012 and in 2013. The economies of the Baltic States may grow at around 3 per cent in 2013. Bulgaria and Romania may face additional risks as they have stronger trade, finance and investment links with Greece and Italy.

WESP warns that a protracted recession in the EU-15, which would delay the recovery of foreign direct investment, remains the biggest risk faced by the new EU members.

Other downside risks include the inability to prevent a sharp cut in cross-border lending and an excessively negative impact of fiscal tightening.

South-Eastern Europe

Real economic activity in South-eastern Europe in 2012 remained below that achieved in 2008 before the onset of global financial crisis. After a very weak recovery in 2010 and 2011 the region?s growth turned negative in 2012, and is forecast to remain below trend in 2013, due to weakness in both external and internal demand. In 2012 spring floods and summer droughts and forest fires destroyed crops, especially corn and potatoes, and physical infrastructure throughout the region. The major risks to the forecast are to the downside as the region?s strong financial, trade and remittances linkages with some of the most troubled countries of the European Union, such as Greece and Italy, make it quite vulnerable should there be a further deterioration in the eurozone. FDI inflows into these economies remains depressed at about half their levels prior to the crisis. This decline in investment is an important factor in explaining not only their current low growth and high unemployment but also their fairly weak medium to long run growth prospects. The aggregate GDP of South-eastern Europe declined by 0.6 percent in 2012, and is forecast to recover only modestly, by 1.2 per cent in 2013.

Europe: rates of growth of real GDP, 2009-2014

PIB EUROPA	Crescimento do PIB Europeu 2009-2014
PIB EUROPA	2009	2010	2011	2012a	2013b	2014b
Western Europe	-4.2	2.1	1.5	-0.2	0.6	1.7
European Union	-4.3	2.1	1.5	-0.3	0.6	1.7
Austria	-3.8	2.1	2.7	0.8	1.3	2.0
Belgium	-2.8	2.4	1.8	-0.3	0.5	1.5
Bulgaria	-5.5	0.4	1.7	1.0	2.3	3.5
Cyprus	-1.9	1.1	0.5	-1.2	0.5	1.3
Czech Republic	-4.5	2.5	1.7	-0.9	1.1	2.0
Denmark	-5.8	1.3	0.8	1.1	1.2	1.3
Estonia	-14.1	3.3	8.3	3.0	3.0	3.5
Finland	-8.5	3.3	2.7	1.5	1.2	1.6
France	-3.1	1.7	1.7	0.1	0.3	1.1
Germany	-5.1	4.2	3.0	0.8	1.0	1.8
Greece	-3.3	-3.5	-6.9	-6.1	-1.8	0.6
Hungary	-6.8	1.3	1.6	-1.0	0.6	2.2
Ireland	-5.5	-0.8	1.4	0.5	1.7	2.4
Italy	-5.5	1.8	0.4	-2.4	-0.3	1.4
Latvia	-17.7	-0.9	5.5	4.0	4.0	4.0
Lithuania	-14.8	1.5	5.9	3.0	3.0	3.0
Luxembourg	-4.1	2.9	1.7	-0.1	0.9	2.0
Malta	-2.7	2.3	2.1	-0.7	1.1	1.8
Netherlands	-3.7	1.6	1.0	-0.5	0.7	1.4
Poland	1.6	3.9	4.3	2.6	2.6	3.5
Portugal	-2.9	1.4	-1.7	-3.2	-2.2	0.2
Romania	-6.6	-1.6	2.5	1.0	2.3	3.0
Slovakia	-4.9	4.4	3.2	2.4	2.0	2.6
Slovenia	-7.8	1.2	0.6	-2.0	0.5	2.2
Spain	-3.7	-0.3	0.4	-1.6	-1.4	0.8
Sweden	-5.0	6.6	3.9	1.7	1.8	2.8
United Kingdom	-4.0	1.8	0.9	-0.3	1.2	2.3
EU-15	-4.4	2.1	1.4	-0.4	0.5	1.6
New EU member States	-3.6	2.3	3.1	1.2	2.0	2.9
Euro area	-4.4	2.1	1.5	-0.5	0.3	1.4
Other Western Europe	-1.9	1.9	1.7	1.7	1.5	1.9
Iceland	-6.6	-4.0	2.6	2.6	2.7	2.6
Norway	-1.7	0.7	1.4	3.5	2.2	2.4
Switzerland	-1.9	3.0	1.9	0.3	0.8	1.4
South-Eastern Europe	-4.3	0.4	1.1	-0.6	1.2	2.6
Albania	3.3	3.9	2.0	1.5	2.5	3.0
Bosnia and Herzegovina	-2.9	0.7	1.7	0.2	1.0	2.1
Croatia	-6.9	-1.4	0.0	-1.3	0.8	2.5
Montenegro	-3.5	1.0	1.6	-1.0	1.3	2.8
Serbia	-5.7	2.5	3.2	0.4	1.5	3.0
The former Yoguslav Republic of Macedonia	-0.9	2.9	3.0	1.0	2.3	2.5
Source:		UN/DESA, based on data of the United Nations Statistics Division and individual national sources.
Note:	a	Partly estimated.
	b	Baseline scenario forecasts, based in part on Project LINK and the UN/DESA World Economic Forecasting Model.

Developed economies: unemployment rates,a, b 2004?2014

Developed economies: unemployment rates,a, b 2004?2014
Table A.7	Percentage of labour force
Table A.7	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012 (c)	2013 (d)	2014 (d)
Developed economies	7.2	6.9	6.3	5.8	6.1	8.4	8.8	8.5	8.6	8.7	8.5
United States	5.5	5.1	4.6	4.6	5.8	9.3	9.6	9.0	8.1	7.7	7.3
Canada	7.2	6.8	6.3	6.0	6.1	8.3	8.0	7.5	7.4	7.4	7.1
Japan	4.7	4.4	4.1	3.8	4.0	5.1	5.1	4.6	4.7	5.1	5.0
Australia	5.4	5.0	4.8	4.4	4.2	5.6	5.2	5.1	5.4	5.5	5.7
New Zealand	4.1	3.8	3.9	3.7	4.2	6.1	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.2	5.8
European Union	9.2	9.0	8.3	7.2	7.0	9.0	9.6	9.6	10.4	10.9	10.6
EU-15	8.3	8.3	7.8	7.1	7.2	9.1	9.6	9.6	10.6	11.1	10.9
Austria	5.0	5.2	4.8	4.4	3.8	4.8	4.4	4.1	4.4	4.6	4.6
Belgium	8.4	8.4	8.3	7.5	7.0	7.9	8.3	7.2	7.4	7.6	7.2
Denmark	5.5	4.8	3.9	3.8	3.4	6.1	7.4	7.6	7.9	8.1	7.8
Finland	8.8	8.4	7.7	6.9	6.4	8.2	8.4	7.8	7.7	7.6	7.5
France	9.3	9.3	9.3	8.4	7.8	9.5	9.7	9.6	10.4	10.9	10.7
Germany	10.5	11.3	10.3	8.7	7.5	7.8	7.1	6.0	5.5	5.6	5.8
Greece	10.5	9.9	8.9	8.3	7.7	9.5	12.6	17.7	24.0	26.2	27.7
Ireland	4.5	4.4	4.5	4.6	6.3	11.9	13.7	14.4	14.9	14.5	13.8
Italy	8.0	7.7	6.8	6.1	6.7	7.8	8.4	8.4	10.6	11.5	11.3
Luxembourg	5.0	4.6	4.6	4.2	4.9	5.1	4.6	4.8	5.4	6.4	6.4
Netherlands	5.1	5.3	4.3	3.6	3.1	3.7	4.5	4.5	5.2	5.7	5.8
Portugal	6.8	7.7	7.8	8.1	7.7	9.6	11.0	12.9	15.6 (F)	18.2	15.9
Spain	10.9	9.2	8.5	8.3	11.3	18.0	20.1	21.6	24.8 (G)	26.2	25.2
Sweden	7.4	7.6	7.0	6.1	6.2	8.3	8.4	7.5	7.6	7.9	7.7
United Kingdom	4.7	4.8	5.4	5.3	5.7	7.6	7.8	8.0	8.1	8.4	8.3
New EU member States	12.8	11.9	10.0	7.7	6.5	8.4	9.8	9.6	9.9	10.2	9.6
Bulgaria	12.0	10.1	9.0	6.9	5.6	6.8	10.2	11.0	11.7	11.2	10.3
Cyprus	4.7	5.5	4.7	4.1	3.8	5.5	6.4	7.9	12.1	12.9	13.2
Czech Republic	8.3	7.9	7.1	5.3	4.4	6.7	7.1	6.9	7.5	8.3	7.7
Estonia	10.0	7.9	5.9	4.6	5.4	13.8	16.8	12.3	11.4	10.9	9.5
Hungary	6.1	7.2	7.5	7.4	7.8	10.0	11.1	10.8	11.2	10.4	9.9
Latvia	9.9	8.9	6.8	6.0	7.5	17.1	18.6	15.4	16.0	15.3	14.7
Lithuania	11.3	8.3	5.6	4.3	5.8	13.7	17.8	15.3	15.5	14.9	14.5
Malta	7.2	7.3	6.9	6.5	6.0	6.9	6.9	6.5	6.3	6.3	6.2
Poland	19.0	17.8	13.9	9.6	7.1	8.2	9.6	9.8	10.0	11.0	10.1
Romania	7.7	7.2	7.3	6.4	5.8	6.9	7.3	7.3	7.1	6.9	6.7
Slovakia	18.4	16.4	13.5	11.2	9.6	12.1	14.5	12.6	13.9	13.8	13.7
Slovenia	6.3	6.5	6.0	4.9	4.4	5.9	7.3	7.3	8.1	8.8	8.5
Other Europe	4.3	4.3	3.7	3.2	3.1	3.9	4.2	3.8	3.1	3.6	3.6
Iceland (e)	3.1	2.6	2.9	2.3	3.0	7.2	7.6	7.1	6.6	6.2	5.9
Norway	4.3	4.5	3.4	2.5	2.6	3.2	3.6	3.2	3.0	3.2	3.1
Switzerland	4.3	4.3	3.9	3.6	3.3	4.3	4.4	3.9	3.0	3.7	3.7
Memorandum items
Major developed economies	6.4	6.2	5.8	5.5	5.9	8.1	8.2	7.7	7.5	7.5	7.3
Euro area	9.2	9.2	8.5	7.6	7.6	9.6	10.1	10.1	11.3	11.8	11.6
Source:	UN/DESA, based on data of the OECD and Eurostat. UN/DESA. Annex tables World Economic Situation and Prospects 2013
a	Unemployment data are standardized by the OECD and Eurostat for comparability among countries and over time, in conformity with the definitions of the International Labour Organization (see OECD, Standardized Unemployment Rates: Sources and Methods (Paris, 1985)).
b	Data for country groups are weighted averages, where labour force is used for weights.
c	Partly estimated.
d	Baseline scenario forecasts, based in part on Project LINK and the UN/DESA World Economic Forecasting Model.
e	Not standardized.
F	Acording to latest IMF data [IMF Executive Board Concludes 2012 Article IV Consultation with Portugal Public Information Notice (PIN) No. 13/07 January 18, 2013 ], portuguese unemployment edging up to about 16¼ percent in recent months
G	Spain - 6000.000 Unemployed

Euro Crisis Austerity Policies Present High Risks To World Economic Situation and Prospects 2013, UN Alert on Global outlook

Global economic outlook Prospects for the world economy in 2013-2014 Risk of a synchronized global downturn

Prospects Of World Economic
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Executive Summary: Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Russian, Spanish
WESP 2013:
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